Palestinian Rockets and the Limits of Israeli Deterrence

Dore Gold
Iran, Mid-East Strategy & Arab-Israeli Diplomacy
21 May '10

(While disagreeing with some of the points, the issues raised are clearly issues. Y.)

The news last week that the Obama administration was asking the US Congress to approve $205 million for the "Iron Dome" rocket defense system was an important development. Israel has gone through two wars in 2006 and 2008 in which both Hizbullah and Hamas launched rockets at Israeli civilians living in towns and moshavim. The reports in the American and Israeli media also inferred another motivation for Washington supporting the Iron Dome project: once an anti-rocket defense system is operational, the prospects of Israel re-deploying from West Bank land will increase, since Israeli officials in the past made the existence of such a system a pre-condition for future Israeli withdrawals. A senior administration official, in a conversation with American Jewish leaders, reiterated last Thursday that Iron Dome was necessary for the two-state solution.

But is it correct to assume that if Israel can effectively intercept short-range rockets like the 7 kilometer range Qassam rocket or the 12 kilometer range Grad, then it can withdraw from the West Bank, assured that the potential rocket threat has been neutralized? The truth is that the situation is far more complicated than the way it is usually presented. It should be recalled that Hamas developed the Qassam rocket in the Gaza Strip when the area was still under the Palestinian Authority. The first Qassam was fired at Israel in 2001, well before Hamas kicked out the PA from the Gaza Strip in 2007. It is likely that if a Palestinian state is created in the West Bank, then there will be Palestinian organizations which will produce Qassam rockets in their own factories and workshops, just like they did in the Gaza Strip. Ben Gurion Airport would be in range of a Qassam rocket attack from West Bank villages near the Green Line, like Budrus and Rantis.

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