Middle East 101: How to Understand the Iran Nuclear Issue and the Self-Made Decline in U.S. Power?

Barry Rubin
The Rubin Report
28 May '10
Posted before Shabbat

Since the Middle East is so important nowadays it is all the more necessary to explain basic concepts about the region. Here's an introduction to some key issues.

What is the use, at least potentially, of sanctions on Iran? We all know that any sanctions the world, or even the U.S. government, is likely to apply won’t stop Iran’s nuclear program. But there are many other potential goals for having sanctions. These include:

Making it harder for Iran to build these weapons and the missiles to carry them, slowing down the program, reducing Iran’s economic assets which can be used for military spending, denying Iran other weapons, intimidating Iran into greater caution in its actual behavior, and encouraging factions (both within the establishment and in the opposition) to conclude that the current Tehran regime is leading them to disaster and must be displaced.

Of these six goals, the plan largely accomplishes one of them—barring the sale of most conventional weapons (but not anti-aircraft missiles)—and does a small amount toward reducing Iran’s assets and slowing down the project. In general, though, it is a question of too little too late.

Again, the problem is not that the sanctions proposed (and which might still be watered down further) aren’t so huge as to make Iran stop but that they will not make Iran more cautious, promote internal conflict due to their high cost, or really put on economic pressure to reduce military spending and increase internal unrest.

(Read full post)

If you enjoy "Love of the Land", please be a subscriber. Just put your email address in the "Subscribe" box on the upper right-hand corner of the page.
.