Two Photos That Express Obama Middle East Policy? Well, Yes and No

Barry Rubin
The Rubin Report
17 April '10

Let's begin with what's most important. This may be the most important single point about the world's most important issue and, consequently, the most important thing I write during this decade. In fact, it's so important that I'm going to put it in bold. Read this even if you don't read the rest of the article:

Consider the Obama Administration’s concept of how it will cope with a nuclear Iran.

The plan is to contain Iran by scaring it. The Iranian regime must think the American president is a man of immense power and daring who will smash it if the Islamic regime tries any funny business. At the same time, the relatively moderate Arabs must feel secure, like Lois Lane standing behind Superman as the bullets bounce off of him.

So clear must this be that someone like President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad can be deterred from firing missiles, attacking neighbors, sponsoring massive terrorism, transferring nuclear weapons, or subverting other countries because he fears American strength and believes with certainty that the United States is ready to go to war and crush his regime if necessary. Clear so far?

But wait a minute! How can the current U.S. government do that when its whole theme is to prove itself a nice easy-going fellow, eager to get along with enemies, reluctant to use force, and obsessed with popularity? What does it signal when a president acts ashamed of past American willingness to impose its will? How does this match up with the necessary posture of a fearless giant ready to face down the most ideologically intoxicated, risk-taking, prone-to-miscalculating, ruthless regime it's confronted since Berlin fell in 1945? (Sure, the USSR was far more powerful than is Islamist Iran, but it was also far more reliably rational and cynical as well.)

You cannot have it both ways. The U.S. government will not be able to have it both ways. Is that clear? Your enemies either tremble with fear, at your scary power, or with laughter, at your diffident desire not to offend anyone.

How you can bow down, disclaim your leadership role, and let everyone push you around one day, but then face down a nuclear Iran the next day.

Now for the background to demonstrate why the above is true.

On one level, the two pictures above tell the story of the Obama Administration Middle East policy; on the other hand, they are very misleading.The most obvious interpretation is that the president's position is one of antagonism toward Israel and servility toward Saudi Arabia. But let's look more deeply and see why that's not completely right.

(Read full article)

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