Dr. Aaron Lerner
IMRA
Weekly Commentary
25 March '10
When Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu sits with his "seven ministers' forum" tomorrow (this) afternoon they should analyze Israel options based on the working assumption that U.S. President Obama will ultimately serve two terms rather than that President Obama will already find himself seriously weakened as we approach the November congressional elections and perhaps even essentially relegated to lame duck status for the balance of his term after those elections give expression to a massive shift against Mr. Obama.
The second scenario might justify a policy of concessions to buy time with the expectation that they can be contained as Israel finds itself in a much stronger position vis-à-vis Obama in a few months. That was part of the logic for the housing construction freeze in Judea and Samaria that was set to expire just as the congressional campaigns will be heating up in the U.S..
But there's no guaranty that this is how it will play out. And it could turn out to be a devastating mistake to rely on it.
Assuming a two term Obama presidency radically changes the ramifications and consequences of the concessions Israel makes today.
Let's not kid ourselves.
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That is why Israel has to say "NO." Or the Jewish State could well find itself losing everything. What is at stake is Israel's independence and that is at a red line that must not be crossed under any circumstances.
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