Hamas' West Bank Popularity Up, So Abbas Isn't Running

JINSA
JINSA Report #: 938
November 9, 2009

Mahmoud Abbas, President of the Palestinian Authority (West Bank division) has announced that he will not run in the Palestinian election currently scheduled for January 2010. He blames Israeli "intransigence" on the issue of houses for Jewish people east of the 1949 Armistice Line.

We offer another perspective.

"Strengthening Abu Mazen" has been U.S., European and Israeli policy since Abbas took over control of Fatah after Yasser Arafat's death. President Bush, who shunned Arafat, was the first American president to call the establishment of an independent Palestinian state an American objective. Billions of dollars, shekels and euros have been poured into the Palestinian Authority territory; the Palestinians are far and away the largest per capita recipients of international largesse. President Obama received Abu Mazen in the White House. The United States sent an American Army general to create a "police force" that has the structure and potential to become a Palestinian army, loyal to Abu Mazen.

In his limited range, Abu Mazen has had some limited success. He has cracked down on corruption, crime and, in particular, on violent criminal gangs on the West Bank. With that and Israel's removal of a large number of security checkpoints, economic growth on the West Bank has been about seven percent in 2009-better than in most of the world. [He has no function in Gaza except to continue to use Western funds to pay salaries for government employees there who now work for Hamas.]

But if Abu Mazen is the darling of those non-Palestinians who wanted him to lead the Palestinians toward the Western construct of a "two-state solution," he has largely been a failure as a Palestinian leader pursuing Palestinian national goals and appears unwilling to ask Palestinians for a renewed mandate.

Abu Mazen is the leader of Fatah, just one party within the Palestinian political constellation. Hamas, Palestinian Jihad, PFLP are other parties, and Iran is a looming presence. In August, the first Fatah convention in 20 years resulted in a restatement of the "right of armed resistance" and "right of return." Jerusalem was labeled holy only to Christians and Muslims. Committee recommendations rejected negotiations with Israel until after 14 conditions are met, including lifting the blockade of Gaza and releasing all prisoners. Younger, harder-line members were elected to the Central Committee.

Since then, Abu Mazen has tried to burnish his hard line credentials-reneging on his promise to President Obama to leave the Goldstone report alone, and insisting on a total settlement freeze even after the United States changed its view.

But it may be too little too late. Despite the economic gains under Fatah, Hamas is increasingly popular among West Bank Palestinians. Instead of running and losing in his remaining satrapy, Abu Mazen is talking about canceling the election and maintaining the political status quo, i.e., himself in charge, spending our money.

Somehow, that's not surprising.
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