Dr. Aaron Lerner
IMRA
15 October 09
We Israelis sometimes get so caught up in ourselves that we actually start to believe that we are the explanation for everything going on in our region.
And it simply isn't true.
Turkey isn't courting Syria and Iran because of Israeli construction in Ramat Eshkol. Turkey's moves are driven by a myriad of domestic, regional and global considerations.
Iran doesn't represent a threat to its neighbors -and beyond - because of its pronounced goal to bring about the destruction of the Jewish state. Iran's activities would constitute a clear and present danger even if Israel didn't exist.
Syria's destructive role in Lebanon is also not related to the Arab-Israeli conflict.
And the list goes on.
There are two important policy ramifications to this simple truth:
For Israel: When we weigh the risks associated with a given move, we have to take into consideration the possibility that changes may take place - through no fault of our own - that could make the move considerably more dangerous.
For the "West": Turning the screws on Israel to conclude a house-of-cards deal with the Palestinians so that the Arab-Israeli conflict can be [temporarily] removed from the diplomatic "do list" won't clear off the rest of the list of trouble spots.
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