Beware Wishful Thinking

Unstable Mideast makes Judea, Samaria crucial for Israel’s security

Yoram Ettinger
Ynet/Opinion
15 July 09

In 1967, Israel demolished the military forces of Egypt, Syria and Jordan. Consequently, Israel developed the "Low Probability Arab Offensive" concept. The 1973 War - along with Mideast unpredictability and objective intelligence constraints - devastated that concept, threatening the Jewish State with oblivion.

In 2003, following the US occupation of Iraq, Israel recycled the "Low Probability" concept. Israel assumed that the US military in Iraq precluded the possibility of a conventional Arab offensive on Israel's eastern front – a lethal threat to Israel's "soft belly" (Jerusalem and greater Tel Aviv).

However, in 2009, that concept has been rendered obsolete by the gradual US evacuation of Iraq and by the lowered US military profile in the Mideast, which have energized Mideast radicals. The gradual US withdrawal from Iraq should free Israel from the "Low Probability" delusion, thus preventing a 1973 War-like disaster. It should put to rest the illusion that the US military presence in Iraq is a fixture, thus supposedly permitting dramatic cuts in Israel's defense budget, while lowering the critical significance of the mountain ridges of Judea and Samaria to Israel's survival.

The potential implications of the drastic change in US policy – from an offensive and defiant posture to one of retreat and engagement – highlight the unpredictable, treacherous and brutal nature of the Mideast. It mandates a very high security threshold, especially for the besieged Jewish State.

For instance, in 1969, Libya was transformed abruptly from a US to a Soviet ally. The largest US (overseas) air force base, Wheelus, became, overnight, a Soviet base. In 1979, Iran was switched violently from the "US Policeman" in the Gulf to a chief "Anti-US Gangster." In 1980, Iraq invaded Iran in violation of their peace treaty, while avoiding US surveillance facilities in the region.

In 1989, the Communist USSR collapsed and policy-makers deluded themselves about peace dividends and the end of the war era. However, the globe and particularly the Mideast, have become less-certain, less-predictable, less-stable, less-familiar and therefore much more threatening.

In 1990, Iraq violated its peace treaty with Kuwait, plundering and raping the sheikhdom. In 1993, the Israel-PLO Oslo Accord was concluded and Shimon Peres authored "The New Middle East," claiming that borders and territory lost their significance. But, instead of peace, the Oslo Process ushered in an unprecedented wave of hate-education, non-compliance and terrorism. The IDF and Israel's Secret Service had to reenter Judea and Samaria, in order to defend Israel's "soft belly" in Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and the 9-15 miles coastal plain (pre-1967 Israel).
(Full article)
.