IMRA Weekly Commentary..
26 April '12..
From the latest “fan dance”:
NETANYAHU: Well demilitarized is a real state. It just means that they can't field the armies. They can't fire rockets. We want to make sure that if we have a peace arrangement, we walk away from certain areas that they won't be used a third time by Iran and its Palestinian proxies to fire rockets on Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, but we don't want to run their lives. I don't want to govern the Palestinians. I don't want them as subjects of Israel or as citizens of Israel. I want them to have their own independent state but a demilitarized state.
BURNETT: And to be clear, one that isn't separated by Israel as in there's a Palestine part here, Israel --
NETANYAHU: No --
BURNETT: All one --
NETANYAHU: That is Swiss cheese (ph) now --
- CNN Interview with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
Aired April 24, 2012 - 19:00 ET
Until this interview we still had the then PM Sharon concept that “contiguity” could be achieved in a “have your cake and eat it too” arrangement via a series of unobstructed bridges and tunnels that would enable Palestinians to move between various locations without the presence of Israeli communities in the same general area interfering with that movement.
Mr. Netanyahu’s reference to “Swiss cheese” indicates that instead of linking Palestinian areas via bridges and tunnels that Israeli communities situated in locations impacting Palestinian contiguity would be uprooted.
Let's not be children here. Netanyahu is engaged in an incredibly complicated high stakes "fan dance". It is a "fan dance" that has been going on for decades.
There is the problem though, that the "audience" takes note of each centimeter exposed during the "dance" and develops a composite picture of all the exposed elements. Here is where things get complicated:
Consider what Mr. Netanyahu says: I want them to have their own independent state but a demilitarized state.
And that’s not just demilitarized on paper.
“We want to make sure that if we have a peace arrangement, we walk away from certain areas that they won't be used a third time by Iran and its Palestinian proxies to fire rockets on Tel Aviv and Jerusalem…”
Here’s the trick:
In truth there is absolutely no way in the world “to make sure that if we have a peace arrangement, we walk away from certain areas that they won't be used a third time by Iran and its Palestinian proxies to fire rockets on Tel Aviv and Jerusalem…”
Yes. There are all kinds of NGOs, academics, ex-brass and politicians walking around with various pieces of paper who are absolutely confident that their piece of paper, if signed, could deliver on this requirement.
But these very same people were wrong about Oslo, the retreat from Gaza and the future of Egypt.
Simple fact: once there is a sovereign Palestinian state on the ground it remains a sovereign Palestinian state even if it trashes the piece of paper it signed in order to become a state.
And given what we have witnessed in this neighborhood, there is every reason in the world to expect that ultimately if we walk away from certain areas that they will be used a third time by Iran and its Palestinian proxies to fire rockets on Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Binyamin Netanyahu is no fool.
He also knows this.
It remains unclear when, if ever, the Palestinians will be smart enough to drop their preconditions for negotiations to force an end to the fan dance.
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