IMRA: Israel cannot afford leaky solutions to coming tsunami

Dr. Aaron Lerner
IMRA
Independent Media news Analysis
Weekly Commentary
31 March '11


Here is the narrative:

Come September the United Nations is going to decide on the unconditional establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state encompassing the entire West Bank (including eastern Jerusalem) and the Gaza Strip.

Most nations will instantly recognize the new state and “nonviolent” Palestinian mobs (AL: in Palestinian eyes, throwing petrol bombs and heaving rocks and rebar is just as “nonviolent” as Martin Luther King marching arms linked in Selma Alabama) make their way to push out the Israeli presence from sovereign Palestine.

The ensuing Palestinian casualties will be used to justify not only international sanctions against the Jewish state but also the injection of foreign forces to protect the Palestinians and supervise the expulsion of the remaining Jews from sovereign Palestine.

Given that the narrative is being used by Israelis from the Left who are trying to stampede us into embracing their policy recommendations it is far from clear just how realistic this apocalyptic scenario is.

But even if we take the narrative at face value, the policy recommendations being offered by those embracing the narrative don’t jibe with their predictions.

If the Palestinians are going to get a sovereign Palestinian state encompassing the entire West Bank (including eastern Jerusalem) and the Gaza Strip with no strings attached in a few months if they sit back and do nothing then there is absolutely no offer that Israel can make today that will prevent the Palestinians from rejecting it so that they can find themselves at the UN come September, blaming Israel for be failing to negotiate in good faith and in turn being rewarded with an unconditional sovereign Palestinian state (with the blessings of a very impatient President Obama who religiously believes that a sovereign Palestinian state would miraculously insure peace while his support would earn America brownie points with the Moslem world).

By the same token, if the Israeli response to the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state encompassing the entire West Bank (including eastern Jerusalem) and the Gaza Strip would be for Israel to unilaterally annex the settlements the reaction of the world would be to simply ignore the move with the original scenario continuing to play out.

Are we really heading towards an apocalypse in September?

Developments in the region today are so unpredictable that it is certainly possible that the Palestinian program derails before our September appointment with destiny.

But it would still be a mistake not to be prepared.

Annexing settlements is neither a serious threat nor an effective response to a sovereign Palestinian state.

In sharp contrast, annexing the entire West Bank and granting citizenship and voting rights in a unilateral “one state solution” that leaves the “refugees” (in quotation marks because unlike other “refugees” who actually resided themselves in some “homeland” a Palestinian “refugee” can be someone who never himself resided in the area but who has an ancestor who resided for some period of time in the area) outside of the state would send everyone back to their drawing boards.

That makes a unilateral Israeli “one state solution” both a serious threat that may deter the actors from proceeding to the September tsunami and a workable plan to implement in the event that it is determined that the September apocalypse is indeed proceeding.

Related articles: Follow up on the annexation solution Dr. Aaron Lerner, also Hebron First by David Wilder

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