Barry Rubin
The Rubin Report
03 September 09
A reader wrote me about one of the latest (and innumerable) sensationalist stories in the Middle East. Namely, in this case, that Hizballah has allegedly deployed chemical and biological weapons. This is absurd but it reminds us of the care that must be taken in analyzing developments in this region.
In this case, the source is a Kuwaiti newspaper. One must first ask: how does a Kuwaiti newspaper with no foreign bureaus and surely no inside sources in Hizballah (or Syria or Israeli intelligence) know this big secret? So the first question you must always ask is: Is it credible that the news outlet or other source knows what it/he/she claims to know?
The second question is the more specific identity of the source. There are sources that are literally always wrong (Debka, al-Quds al-Arabi, the Syrian state press, etc) and should be remembered as such. In this case, the newspaper is al-Siyassa, a courageous newspaper in its stance against Syria and radical Islamists and which is also pro-Saudi. Clearly, as in the past, al-Siyassa wants a sensationalist story and also to make the Syrians (and their client, Hizballah) look bad.
The third question is the rule of rationality: There have been no credible previous reports of Hizballah having these weapons. And if they did, Israeli sources would be talking about it a lot.
Consider another recent story, the claim that Israel hijacked a Russian ship carrying arms to Hamas. Russia is a very important country for Israel. Aside from trade and other issues, Israel doesn’t want Moscow to sell advanced anti-aircraft missiles to Iran, just in case Israel decides one day to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities. Would Israel take the risk of creating a virtual war scenario with the Russian government? Not credible.
In the past there were mythical lands, or at least lands about which myths could be told. People remember that Marco Polo described the court of the emperor of China but not that Polo also speaks of lands along the way where he insisted he saw men with two heads.
The Middle East has become the part of the world onto which fantasies are projected. But there’s a problem. Due to Political Correctness and other dubious blessings of contemporary life, one cannot even speak honestly about what goes on in Iran or Arabic-speaking lands. The old cliché that, “if you can’t say something nice, don’t say anything at all,” has seemingly been enshrined on the intellectual temples of our era.
Consequently, a growing proportion of the mythology settles on the place about which it is permissible to say anything: Israel.
For example, if I were to assert that the proportion of deliberate and credibly believed lying in public life, media, and universities in the Arabic-speaking world is far higher than in the West (not to deny that there is plenty of that in the West also, enhanced by some current trends), that would be considered shocking.
Can I prove this? Certainly, just look at the record of past statements which have been proven accurate or inaccurate.
Combine that with the lack of institutional controls. If something outrageous is asserted—the Holocaust never happened, America is behind all the terrorism in Iraq, Israel murders Palestinians to steal their organs, the Mossad or CIA was behind September 11, ad infinitum—there are few voices that will say: That’s nonsense! In short, not only are the lies, slanders, and conspiracy theories not countered, alternative views are endangered species.
In this context, a natural Western impulse to say that “the truth must be halfway in between” or “we’re just hearing two equally credible discourses” is crippling.
Yet without understanding these realities, it is impossible to comprehend the area’s political life or to set policies toward the Middle East.
.
In this case, the source is a Kuwaiti newspaper. One must first ask: how does a Kuwaiti newspaper with no foreign bureaus and surely no inside sources in Hizballah (or Syria or Israeli intelligence) know this big secret? So the first question you must always ask is: Is it credible that the news outlet or other source knows what it/he/she claims to know?
The second question is the more specific identity of the source. There are sources that are literally always wrong (Debka, al-Quds al-Arabi, the Syrian state press, etc) and should be remembered as such. In this case, the newspaper is al-Siyassa, a courageous newspaper in its stance against Syria and radical Islamists and which is also pro-Saudi. Clearly, as in the past, al-Siyassa wants a sensationalist story and also to make the Syrians (and their client, Hizballah) look bad.
The third question is the rule of rationality: There have been no credible previous reports of Hizballah having these weapons. And if they did, Israeli sources would be talking about it a lot.
Consider another recent story, the claim that Israel hijacked a Russian ship carrying arms to Hamas. Russia is a very important country for Israel. Aside from trade and other issues, Israel doesn’t want Moscow to sell advanced anti-aircraft missiles to Iran, just in case Israel decides one day to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities. Would Israel take the risk of creating a virtual war scenario with the Russian government? Not credible.
In the past there were mythical lands, or at least lands about which myths could be told. People remember that Marco Polo described the court of the emperor of China but not that Polo also speaks of lands along the way where he insisted he saw men with two heads.
The Middle East has become the part of the world onto which fantasies are projected. But there’s a problem. Due to Political Correctness and other dubious blessings of contemporary life, one cannot even speak honestly about what goes on in Iran or Arabic-speaking lands. The old cliché that, “if you can’t say something nice, don’t say anything at all,” has seemingly been enshrined on the intellectual temples of our era.
Consequently, a growing proportion of the mythology settles on the place about which it is permissible to say anything: Israel.
For example, if I were to assert that the proportion of deliberate and credibly believed lying in public life, media, and universities in the Arabic-speaking world is far higher than in the West (not to deny that there is plenty of that in the West also, enhanced by some current trends), that would be considered shocking.
Can I prove this? Certainly, just look at the record of past statements which have been proven accurate or inaccurate.
Combine that with the lack of institutional controls. If something outrageous is asserted—the Holocaust never happened, America is behind all the terrorism in Iraq, Israel murders Palestinians to steal their organs, the Mossad or CIA was behind September 11, ad infinitum—there are few voices that will say: That’s nonsense! In short, not only are the lies, slanders, and conspiracy theories not countered, alternative views are endangered species.
In this context, a natural Western impulse to say that “the truth must be halfway in between” or “we’re just hearing two equally credible discourses” is crippling.
Yet without understanding these realities, it is impossible to comprehend the area’s political life or to set policies toward the Middle East.
.
Posts
While it might be exciting to postulate about which weapons our enemies may possess, our armed forces must train to fight against all of them and our civilian population must be prepared to defend against them. This will forever be the plight of Israel. How many other nations can you think of whose population has gas masks and hardened bunkers at their disposal?
ReplyDeleteUntil Hamas, Hizbollah, Fatah and Islamic Jihad agree to recognize Israel's right to exist (and prove it by stopping their attacks against Israelis), we are better served by preparing for the eventuality of any type of attack, no matter how remote the posibility appears. The truth of the matter is that Israel remains surrounded by mortal enemies. This is not likely to change in our grandchildren's generation, let alone ours.
I find it particularly appalling that we are losing the PR war with like likes of Hamas and Hizbollah. This must change. While we may never be able to convince the Palestinian population that the Holocaust happened, we certainly can prevent Europeans from falling for ultra-strange Palestinian PR events, as we saw during Cast Lead. Our enemies stage "collateral damage videos" and the European news media gobbles it up as if it were factual. This is the war we are losing. And, with the ever-increasing Moslem demographic in Europe, we may soon find ourselves deprived of friends on the continent.
If Israel can survive 3,000 years of persecution, torture, slavery, occupation and extermination; if we can become a global leader in technology, agriculture and science, then we can certainly find a way to create effective PR and beat the Palestinians at their own game.
Charles S. Weinblatt
Author, Jacob's Courage
http://jacobscourage.wordpress.com/