05 October '15..
Observation: Don’t kick the can beyond the window of opportunity
Recent developments have tipped the scales against a program limited to restoring calm for the short term rather than a much broader program that addresses our underlying challenges.
These developments include:
#1. The inevitability of a nuclear Iran – as PM Netanyahu has so eloquently warned, passage of the Iran deal has set into motion conditions that almost
guaranty that Iran will have nukes well within Israel’s strategic planning horizon.
#2. Thanks to the Iran deal, Iran will soon be able to dramatically increase its support for forces threatening the Jewish State.
#3. Russian’s entry into Syria – a move that in the very short run may serve to ensure that Hezbullah focuses its activities on the battle to support Assad, but that could just as easily soon create an environment in which it can turn its battle-seasoned forces armed with the most advanced weapons Russia delivers to the area and even enjoying at least some degree of Russian defense cover.
#4. Developments extraneous to Israel requiring the focus of Egyptian, Saudi, Jordanian and other important regional players.
Absent the above, a responsible program for policy makers could very well be a series of measures limited to restoring calm. “Kicking the Palestinian can” down the road with the idea that, thanks to demographic developments and our ongoing progression in the technology of war and defense, time is very much on our side.
But because of the above, time is not on our side for significant action on the Palestinian front.
#1. We can act today without being subject to the deterrent effect of a nuclear Iran.
#2. We can act today without fear of unbearable losses as a consequence of a slugfest with Hezbullah, Hamas and others.
#3. We can act today without fear that the move will start a chain reaction that leads to an Egyptian invasion backed by Saudi, Jordanian and other forces.
So what should we do if we don‘t want to just kick the Palestinian can down the road?
Replacing the Palestinian Authority with city/region based arrangements? There are, indeed many ideas that have been bouncing around.
And the window for taking our destiny in our hands via the implementation of such programs rather than being sucked into something by momentum is rapidly closing.
Now is the time for leadership.
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