...The potential use of the tunnels in a future invasion makes it just that more crucial to destroy the existing tunnels and prevent the construction of new ones in the future. And the potential use of the Hezbollah tunnels in an invasion raises very serious questions about the almost complacent attitude Israeli policymakers appear to have taken to this ongoing threat.
IMRA Weekly Commentary..
23 July '14..
Once again it looks like we lucked out.
Circumstances led to a single front conflict with the enemy fortuitously rejecting ongoing appeals for a ceasefire.
But our luck may be magnitudes greater than we realize.
Let's put the tremendous investment that Hamas made in the tunnel network crossing into Israel into historical context.
This huge project of tunnels predates the fall of the Moslem Brotherhood in Egypt.
#1. Hezbollah investing heavily in a huge network of tunnels providing access to northern Israel from the Lebanese border.
#2. Hamas devoting a large portion of its resources to building a huge network of tunnels, 4-5 meters (13-16.5 feet) wide, providing access to Israel from the Gaza border.
#3. Moslem Brotherhood building a shadow army in the Sinai with the idea that, one way or the other, the armed forces serving in Egypt would ultimately execute without hesitation the orders of the Moslem Brotherhood.
When analysts put the Hezbollah and Hamas build ups into a regional context, it is typically with the idea that their purpose is to deter Israel from attacking Iran. That the fear of many tens of thousands of rockets blanket bombing the Jewish State in response to an attack on Iran would stop Israel from taking military action against Teheran.
In a way, it's a comforting thought since it means that as long as Israel doesn't strike Iran the rockets in Lebanon will stay in storage.
But the above "lineup" is consistent with a much more horrifying scenario.
The Hezbollah and Hamas tunnels, that have a capacity to inject thousands of troops into Israel, weren't built for terror attacks. They were intended for use as part of a large scale invasion.
Because once you consider what an Egyptian Moslem Brotherhood Army could have done in coordination with Hamas and Hezbollah it's not a "mega terror attack" – it is an invasion.
An invasion by a collection of forces - including the Egyptian Moslem Brotherhood - genuinely devoted to the obliteration of the Jewish State.
How could Egypt move large forces across Sinai? Suffice it to say that considering how enamored President Obama was with Moslem Brotherhood, it would not have been difficult for then President Morsi to create a situation in which the White House successfully pressured Israel not to react to the move until it was too late.
Is the potential for such a nightmare scenario no longer relevant?
It all depends on your timeframe.
We most certainly hope that Egypt will be led by moderate leaders for generations to come.
But that's only "hope".
The potential use of the tunnels in a future invasion makes it just that more crucial to destroy the existing tunnels and prevent the construction of new ones in the future.
And the potential use of the Hezbollah tunnels in an invasion raises very serious questions about the almost complacent attitude Israeli policymakers appear to have taken to this ongoing threat.
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Since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations